WITPTW
A weekly macro meditation on markets, geopolitics, and the things that matter. Published every Sunday since 2016.
12 October 2026
Between Zero and Zero
Between zero and zero: strong auctions gave bonds their first weekly gain in six, but the capital shortage is not over, and this week the people who shape the consensus meet in Bangkok to tell each other so. The RBI defends 97 with a China-style reserve on dollar hedging, and the letter walks through what China's 2015, 2018 and 2022 versions did and did not do. Trump buys Russian diesel and calls for a new Ukrainian president, the Houthis strike Riyadh's airport three times in a week, and China offers Europe a quota on hybrids. Navi Pillay's Nobel lands on the day Washington sanctions the ICC, Dimon names two reasons bank shares fall into their best quarter, and Paul Tudor Jones puts the odds of lower rates between zero and zero. The board: the capital shortage at week nine, a new G10 rates table, seven new shifts on CPI, the IMF, Warsh and the rupee, and the tails rebuilt from scratch. This week: the rupee reopens, the MAS, China's data and US CPI on Wednesday, retail sales and PPI, and Warsh with Georgieva on Friday, with niboshi for dashi week three. The plan: wait for a pullback in rates and a dip to rebuild the USDJPY and USDCHF longs. Stay sharp.
5 October 2026
France Takes Its Turn
The deficit panic lands on Paris: France's spread over Germany jumps fifty basis points in a week, the euro breaks the range it held since the April 2025 tariff shock, and the letter owns the miss of not having France on the board for weeks. Bonds no longer rally on bad news, a 29,000 payroll print and the 10-year still closed higher, while gold closes below the neckline we watched for weeks and the dollar reaches an 18-month high. Zervos warned against fighting the Treasury and now works there, Stockdale's optimists meet a bond market that will not rally, and Dornbusch explains why France took years and then a week. The board: France is a new regime, the war regime moves to a Saudi ground offensive, and new tails for the refinery war, the midterm repricing and what breaks first. This week: Brazil's result, ISM services, the RBI, the Fed minutes at 2am Thursday and Malaysia's budget, with katsuobushi for dashi week two. The plan: search for where the next shoe drops, question the yen and franc longs as carry unwinds, and let gold's break support the dollar. Stay nimble.
28 September 2026
All Rise, into Q4
Everything rose together: stocks near their records, the 10-year closing above 5% three sessions running after a hot PMI, Brent back above $100 and the dollar to 101.40. The letter grades itself honestly: the PMI fired the branch we had not scripted, and the UN Assembly and the Iran talks were bigger than the space we gave them, Tehran's roadmap refused with strikes pencilled in after the midterms. The summit delivered an extension, not a deal, and the yuan's fixing turned the moment Xi left. The board: the five-handle holds, the yen is talked back a fourth time, the price of intelligence falls while the cost of building it rises, and the war regime moves to Saudi Arabia's dark clouds. This week: the RBA, PCE on quarter-end, Golden Week, ISM with eight Fed speakers and payrolls, with Jon Gray, Trump's "I am the code" and George Yeo in the quotes and a new dashi series opening with kombu. The plan: long USD even though a retracement is likely, the USDCNH short comes off, and gold's neckline challenged but not broken. Stay nimble.
21 September 2026
The Returns Dollar
The gauntlet paid out and still surprised: a 12-0 hawkish hike with the market pricing the Fed above its own dots, a BOJ hike the yen fell straight through, the 10-year's first five-handle since 2007 and a 20-year auction at 5.42%, the highest since 1986. Last week's letter called the dollar's new regime; the week proved it wrong, and the letter grades the miss and flips with the evidence: the dollar is held for returns, not safety, and the returns point up. The board takes surgery: the manufactured yen turn is retired at week three, the funding-currency battle is born, the bond regime becomes the capital shortage, and the Saudi trap gets its own map, with Washington declining to help and Riyadh's exits all expensive. This week: Japan dark until Thursday, Singapore's CPI with MAS unequivocally hawkish, three European holds in one morning, and Xi at the White House with the AI chiefs at dinner. The plan: long USD against the funding currencies, short USDCNH into Golden Week, no yen adds above 158 with 160 the act-watch, and nothing binary through the summit. Stay nimble.
14 September 2026
The Fed Listens Back
Warsh told markets to listen less to the Fed and more to the data; they listened, priced a September hike near ninety percent, and at 2am our Thursday the Fed listens back. The dollar fell a second straight week against a 25-basis-point rise in twos: the new-regime thesis strengthens, stimulus reads dollar-negative, deficits read as debt, and the largest position in the world is being challenged. Diesel crossed $6.00 for the first time on record with the crack spread through $100, French covered bonds now yield less than France itself, and the AI trade asked for its own brake, Amodei, Altman and Musk together, the IPO window sequenced behind them. This week: three central banks in seventy-two hours, retail sales hours before the Fed, Taiwan's genuine coin flip, and a Friday that stacks Japan's CPI, the BOJ's hike, quadruple witching and five index rebalances into one session while Iran mobilises at home. The plan: neutral dollars through the Fed, the surplus crosses carry the theme, the yen turn respected but not chased below 153, gold's 4,300 neckline must hold, and nothing trades in the windows. Trim into Wednesday, do nothing at night, rebuild after Ueda. Stay nimble.
7 September 2026
I Am Now the House
Forty years in the markets, and Scott Bessent tells a Charlotte audience: "I am now the house." On Wednesday the house starts buying — the Treasury's first doubled buyback operation runs between the 10-year and 30-year auctions — while the Fed argues with itself in public, Waller hanging his vote on the data, Trump demanding the lowest rates in the world, and the chair silent in the blackout. Payrolls beat by the most since April and the dollar faded anyway; the yen's five-year era bent three percent in two days without a single intervention; JGBs crossed 3% for the first time in three decades. Diesel sits at a record $5.85, exactly on an eighteen-year breakout line, with two months to the midterms. This week: the ECB hikes in Berlin, Oracle reports as the AI trade's public proxy, and Friday's CPI decides a genuine coin flip of a September meeting. The plan: neutral dollars through the print, the surplus-versus-deficit crosses carry the theme, the yen turn respected but not chased, and nothing trades in the windows. Stay nimble.
31 August 2026
Jackson Hawk
Warsh opened his first Jackson Hole speech with hiking jokes and closed it with a firm, fixed 2%, and the market did the rest: the front end priced a September hike at better than even odds, the curve flattened massively, the dollar bounced off the border of its 200-day, and gold posted the first weekly reversal of its run. August ends as a round trip, and last week's simple idea, the debasement trade, faces its first test — proven wrong in one speech, or a can kicked past the point of no return? Elsewhere the gunboats returned to Venezuela with a 65-billion-barrel invoice, the buybacks may be funded from a trillion-dollar cash account, El Niño is the strongest in a generation, and the fluency gap reached the family dinner table. This week: three central bank decisions that rhyme with the Fed, Broadcom after Wednesday's close, and payrolls Friday on a freshly revised baseline, with no auction supply anywhere to hide behind. The plan: neutral dollars after three weeks short, and the new theme inside Asia — surplus versus deficit, long Taiwan and Korea against the Philippines and Indonesia. Stay nimble.
24 August 2026
The Simple Idea
We got a lot of breakouts last week, and the correlations broke with them: long-end yields up with the 20-year auction tailing and the buybacks doubled within hours, stocks down, the dollar down through its 200-day, gold and bitcoin up hard. The debasement trade is back with the Treasury itself as the catalyst, the national debt crossed $40 trillion, and the last great bond bull cut forty years of duration to under one. The war shifts from military to financial on two fronts, Iran's "economic D-Day" and Canada's counter-tariffs, while the AI credit machine accelerates toward its massive and final fundraisings. This week: PCE, the second GDP estimate and Nvidia all land Wednesday, the BOK's close-call hike Thursday, and the chair's first Jackson Hole speech at 10pm our Friday with the benchmark payrolls revision in the same hour, $183 billion of belly auctions along the way. The plan: stay short the dollar, survive the month-end squeezes, trim the won leg before the BOK, own gamma through both peaks, and harvest nothing into the speech. Stay nimble.
17 August 2026
Change of Subject
Another week of weaker-than-expected US data, hike odds fell further, and equities loved it all the way to records. The strange part is everything else: the long end sold anyway, the 30-year stopping at levels last seen in 2008 two days after an in-line CPI, and the dollar falling while its rate advantage rose. When yields rise on weak data, the market is repricing the borrower, not the cycle — two trillion of borrowing this fiscal year without a recession, and gold at 4,376 on the biggest central-bank quarter on record. This week the FOMC minutes may renew the hike bets, the Treasury sells 20-years an hour before them, the MOF sells 5s and 20s into a nearly-priced BOJ, Walmart reads the consumer, and flash PMIs walk the week out, the last quiet week before Jackson Hole. The plan: stay short the dollar, EURUSD through 1.16 opens the next leg, the yen is the BOJ's story now, IDR and PHP on the radar. Harvest carry, own cheap tails, take profit by Thursday, and walk into Jackson Hole light.
10 August 2026
Size for Wednesday
The strangest jobs report in years reset the argument: payrolls negative for the first time in the cycle, unemployment lower only because the labour force shrank, September hike odds cut from 72% to 44% in an hour while the S&P closed at a record and the VIX slept at 14.90. Now the week narrows to one print. July CPI lands Wednesday night our time with a $42 billion 10-year auction pricing hours behind it, PPI and the 30-year Thursday, retail sales and the 13F unveiling Friday, and Tokyo running the mirror experiment, a linker auction and super-long supply into 7.5% producer prices. The RBA opens the week with a hawkish hold, the yuan sits at its strongest since 2023, and the dollar carries a double top with the 200-day just below. The plan: stay short the dollar but do not chase it, buy the Aussie into the hold, keep the carry at the AUDNZD pivot, and express Asia longs in crosses, the yuan and the Aussie against the won. If CPI is hot, all of it is wrong within an hour. Size for Wednesday, not for the week.
3 August 2026
All at Once
It feels like everything is happening at the same time, and the VIX is trading at the lows. A joint US-Japan yen intervention, the first in nearly thirty years, opens the week, dollar-yen down six big figures to 157.40 and below its 200-day average for the first time since October, with the US Treasury telling banks it may act itself. The Fed held 9-3 with three dissents wanting a hike, the most famous AI fund in the market was forced to sell its book at a discount, the Kospi squeezed 18% in a single day after falling 40%, and the loan market started charging properly for compute risk. Then Friday brings July payrolls, the seasonal print that has twice turned the policy cycle, one bad number from flipping the whole conversation from hikes to cuts. The plan: pick a good level to sell dollar-yen and get long the yen for asymmetric risk-reward, fade the won and Taiwan dollar rallies, and use the week to prepare the trades of the coming months.
27 July 2026
The Correct Expression
The most consequential macro week of 2026. Three G7 central banks in seventy-two hours, the FOMC in our small hours Thursday, the Bank of England Thursday evening, the Bank of Japan Friday, wrapped around US GDP and PCE, euro-area and Tokyo CPI, and the biggest earnings fortnight of the year. And behind all of it, Brent back above $100 with the strait still shut, the ten-year through 4.70% and the yen at a forty-year low. The lesson from my own week is the whole letter: the long dollar view against Asia was right and got stopped out anyway, the yen running to four-decade lows while Seoul's intervention took the Korean leg out from under it. Right on the view, wrong on the instrument. This time oil looks much harder to retreat and inflation may hit harder than the consensus is set up for. The plan is to read the reaction function from the Fed and the Bank of Japan and stay light into the trifecta. The view is not the hard part this week. To win is to pick the correct expression.
20 July 2026
Where the Pain Is
The foundation broke. The semiconductor index fell 20% from its record in the worst week since the 2025 tariff rollout, triggered not by a rate decision but by an open Chinese model taking the top of the leaderboard with its weights due for public release. A token is worth less than the capex assumed, and the chips are the first place that gets marked. Meanwhile my thesis of inflation tamed by oil returning to the lows is totally reversed, with the Strait of Hormuz closed since Monday, a blockade enforced and crude climbing with little resistance. July hike pricing has fallen to 20% from 50%, which I think raises rather than lowers the odds of an insurance hike. Alphabet and Tesla report Wednesday, the ECB and Korean GDP land Thursday, global flash PMIs and the tariff expiry Friday. So the book flips: long USD against the Asian complex rather than short it, sized for a grind not a gap. If the Fed is going to hike, how do Asia curves stay here?
13 July 2026
The Full Day's Test
The summer doldrums got their answer, violently. A weekend of fresh strikes around the Strait of Hormuz opens a week where a single Tuesday stacks June CPI, the new chair's first-ever Congressional testimony and five of the six largest US banks reporting all within a few hours, with China Q2 GDP, the Bank of Canada and TSMC to follow. The whole week decides whether the July FOMC is even live. Oil trades offered despite the war, and the shale charts are why. Balance-sheet capacity has become the scarce resource of the cycle, dealers net short corporate bonds for the first time on record as the levered-ETF complex doubles. The plan: stay short USDJPY and USDKRW into another weak close, stop on a break of the lower-highs. A soft core CPI with the chair in the chair is the cleanest catalyst, a hot one is the stop.
6 July 2026
The Next Narrative
As we understood and possibly misunderstood Warsh over the last two weeks, global markets are back to facing the summer doldrums without a theme. The jobs miss halved the hike pricing and pushed it toward December, the two-year finished below 4.14% and as goes the two-year, so goes the dollar. USDJPY printed a 40-year high at 162.85 then reversed, Japan has stopped telegraphing intervention, Korea is pondering. AI maxxing is inflationary short term and extraordinarily deflationary medium term, the timing determines whether the FOMC has to hike first. FOMC minutes Wednesday are as much guidance as you might get. The plan: stay short USDJPY and USDKRW as the markets correct, stop on a break of the lower-highs lower-lows trend. Stay nimble.
29 June 2026
The Cloud Test
Nasdaq walked into the Ichimoku cloud Friday and is testing 25k again. Warsh chairs his first international panel at the ECB Sintra Forum Wednesday 14:00 Lisbon alongside Lagarde, Bailey and Macklem, the first international test of the deliberate post-Powell opacity. NFP brought forward to Thursday ahead of July 4, BE 200k vs cons 113k a wide spread. AI capex doubt has room to run, SpaceX bonds bleed, Zhipu matches Mythos on the very benchmark the export control cited, Alphabet replaces Verizon in the Dow at the Monday open. The plan: short JPY crosses on Asia equity de-risking, long USDCNH the best carry-vol upside trade, tactical short Nasdaq into Warsh and NFP, stay paid US 2y. The post-mortem from last week is wired into a new one-pager at the top.
22 June 2026
The Path of Least Resistance
The peace deal looks set to go ahead anyway as the Trump administration just wants to move ahead. The bigger development is the Warsh Fed coming short-term super hawkish, markets are buying USD like there is no tomorrow, DXY broke to a new high since May 2025, the largest EURUSD selling in a while. AI still moving in hyper-speed. A relatively data-light week ahead, all about how much CBs are being priced for the next move. China LPRs Monday with the dovish PBOC benchmark switch, DM flash PMIs Tuesday, Australia and Asia CPIs midweek, PCE Thursday the most important print, BE calls 4.1% headline and 3.4% core baked. The plan: USD longs the path of least resistance, INR/IDR carry, CNH question, stay nimble.
15 June 2026
Where the Data Runs Out
Seven G10 central banks meet. Warsh’s first FOMC Wednesday with a new SEP, Powell sitting alongside. BOJ +25 to 1% Tuesday, the first 1% rate since 1995, Uchida chairing as Ueda is hospitalised. BOE, SNB, Norges, Indonesia, Philippines, Taiwan, Brazil, Sweden all in the same week. G7 in Evian, Russia-ASEAN in Kazan, Lujiazui Forum in Shanghai, VivaTech in Paris all run in parallel. SpaceX printed at $1.8 trillion Friday, Musk first trillionaire. The plan: watch oil, stay nimble, USD path depends on Warsh tone. And contradicting myself: no one in a Monday meeting can come out with a scenario where rates are lower from here. That alone is reason enough to keep the long-rates trade alive.
8 June 2026
Things Fall Apart
The calm of the last six weeks is finally broken. Friday’s 172k NFP, roughly double the 88k consensus, was the moment the rally cracked — Nasdaq -4.7% on the week, chipmakers -10%, DXY through 100 to a two-month high, EUR through 1.16 to 1.15, USDJPY tested 160.35, 10y above 4.50%, Fed hike for 2026 fully priced. Wednesday’s May CPI is the test, BE calls 4.1% headline (year peak). ECB Thursday hikes 25 to 2.25%. SpaceX Friday raises 75 billion at 1.8 trillion valuation, the largest IPO ever. Warsh’s first FOMC nine days out. The plan: chase USD, pay short end on the bear flattener, powder dry into CPI. Or we all just throw the towel to watch the World Cup.
1 June 2026
Switch of Guards
Five central banks pivoting in the same fortnight. The RBA paused dovish after three 2026 hikes as April CPI eased on fuel-tax rebates, the RBNZ surprised with a hawkish hold last week, Warsh’s first FOMC is two weeks out, the ECB June hike is a done deal, and the BOJ June hike is almost certain. NFP Friday is the gate, Broadcom and Lululemon Thursday the AI tape and consumer tape side by side, eurozone CPI Tuesday cements the ECB. The European story has structure now, not just news flow — $12.4 trillion of European capital parked in US assets, the hedged carry turned negative, earnings parity ex Mag 7, any rotation a mechanical EUR bid. The plan: AUDNZD lower, EURJPY higher, CNH outperformance through the lower-volatility channel of flows.
25 May 2026
Warsh’s First
PCE Thursday is the chilling reminder for Wall Street that Main Street has been living through for months. Warsh, sworn in Friday, inherits a Fed where the question is no longer whether to cut sooner but whether his first move is, improbably, up. Bonds lower across the G7 with the US 30-year at a 2007 high; the eurozone CPI cluster Friday plus the ECB April minutes set up the June hike vote. China runs a quiet supply-chain prioritisation, the only major bond market not in the selloff. The plan: build 3-6m USD upside, pay US short end, pay European rates with a small long EUR sleeve, pay China short rates, long CNH. Smaller sizing into summer.
18 May 2026
Gradually, Then Suddenly
The bond market stopped being the background and became the story. A synchronized sovereign sell-off ran from Tokyo to London to New York, the UK 30-year gilt at a 1998 high and Japan’s 30-year through 4% for the first time since 1999. Wednesday stacks Nvidia earnings and the FOMC minutes on one afternoon; Putin visits Xi on 19-20 May. The plan: long dollar and paid the US short end, sized up, short AUD and CNH against the crowd, hedged with a short yen cross. Gradually, then suddenly.
11 May 2026
The Handover
The S&P printed fresh all-time highs and the Nasdaq cleared 26,000 for the first time. The goldilocks payrolls killed the stagflation print. UMich at a fresh record low says the consumer hears something different. Three pivots define this week: Tuesday US April CPI, Thursday Trump in Beijing for the summit with Xi, Friday Powell hands the chair to Warsh. The plan: stay short USD, long KRW/MYR/TWD on the AI cycle, long THB tied to gold, accumulate gold on this base, fade SPX into Trump-Xi.
4 May 2026
Sell in May
The war is in its tenth week and has slipped from the front pages. Records and warning signals occupying the same week. The S&P printed fresh all-time highs even as Brent briefly tagged $120 and the dollar made its longest losing streak in fifteen years. Five G10 central banks delivered hawkish holds, three Fed dissents at the April FOMC, the highest count since 1992. UAE quit OPEC effective May 1. The plan: stay short USD, watch USDJPY 155 to 156, fade SPX rallies into Friday’s NFP, hold credit hedges. Sell in May, not as an adage, but as the trade.
27 April 2026
Powell’s Last Stand
Powell takes his last seat at the Fed table on Wednesday. The DOJ dropped its renovation probe Friday, clearing Warsh’s path. Records and warning signs in the same week — S&P at 7,165, Intel +24%, but Stoxx 600 -2.5%, HY OAS at pre-GFC level, Hormuz still blocked. Four central banks decide in seventy-two hours. Mag 7 reports. Size down for Wednesday.
20 April 2026
Dollar Sells On
DXY made its longest losing streak in fifteen years. Hormuz reimposed, Lebanon fraying, yet markets are looking through. PPI cooled to 0.5%, banks beat. Warsh hearing and Tuesday’s truce deadline are the twin catalysts, assuming Democrats do not block. Trim dollar shorts, do not flip. Size down for Tuesday.
13 April 2026
Fragile Truce
Islamabad ended without agreement. Vance has left. Markets rallied anyway. UMich at 47.6 says the consumer is not buying the same story the S&P is. PPI Tuesday is the stagflation test. Six of the top eight US banks report. The plan: short USDSGD through MAS, use bank provisions as the scorecard. Size down for the binary.
6 April 2026
Structural Damage Confirmed
The April 6 deadline expired with no deal. Iran rejected the 15-point proposal. Ceasefire optionality is narrowing. Oil back above $112. NFP doubled the consensus but the labour market is rotating, not growing. CPI on Friday is THE print of the week. The plan: gut feel is the off-ramp can happen. Selling USD in a more stable environment.
30 March 2026
Ceasefire Optionality
South Pars damage is permanent. But the vol regime has shifted from one-way to two-way. Trump’s Iran post moved Brent 11% in minutes. April 6 is the week. Xi-Trump and Pakistan talks are the two off-ramps. Size down for Good Friday.
23 March 2026
Permanent Damage
South Pars changed the category of this war. Qatar declared force majeure on 17% of LNG for 3-5 years. The rate repricing is the most violent since 2022. Gold crashed 10% in a week. Nowhere to hide except cash and energy.
16 March 2026
Fewer Unknowns, Not Fewer Risks
Eight G10 central banks meet in one week. Stagflation confirmed. Iran will not fold. Trump meets Xi on March 31. The plan: RBA forced move, USDJPY 160 short, and one eye on Bab el-Mandab.
9 March 2026
Everything Is Hitting at the Same Time
War, jobs, credit, oil, AI disruption. Last week felt like the kind of week that changes the reference point for everything that follows. The muscle memory of buying dips and waiting for normal is being tested.
2 March 2026
Operation Epic Fury
Hormuz is not theoretical. One-fifth of global oil flows through that strip of water. Leadership decapitation does not mean regime collapse. The gap between the supply plan and the geopolitical reality is where oil trades this week.